CHINA’S TAKE OVER OF TAIWAN COULD HAVE “REVOLUTIONARY IMPACT” ON U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

If China takes over Taiwan, it would be “the most revolutionary situation in security terms in East Asia since the rise of Japanese power in the 1930s and the outbreak of World War II”, according to Peter Enav, Editor of the Taiwan Strait Risk Report.

Enav emphasized that President Donald Trump’s decision to support Taiwan or accede to a Chinese take-over is a critical national security question.

Reflecting concerns in Japan, a January Nikkei Asia report worries that in upcoming negotiations between the Trump Administration and China: “Beijing may request that the U.S. change its wording on Taiwan, shifting, for instance, from “not supporting” Taiwanese independence to “opposing ” it.” [1]

Enav warned that increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan could lead to restrictions on ocean shipping to the island, higher marine insurance rates and possible restrictions on the sale of high-end semiconductors, made in Taiwan, to the United States.

Enav spoke at a Propeller Club of Northern California webinar produced in cooperation with the California State University Maritime Academy on January 21, 2025.

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Thanks to $322 million in federal grants for zero-emission equipment and nearly $100 million for Port infrastructure, Port of Oakland Executive Director Danny Wan says the Port is: “doing a whole lot of work in putting the basic building blocks (for) a very successful, bright future for the Port of Oakland.”

Wan and Maritime Director Bryan Brandes provided their 2024 Annual Review to the Propeller Club of Northern California on December 3rd, 2024.

Wan thanked Port of Oakland maritime stakeholders, including truckers, shippers, terminal operators, and longshore workers represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU): “We have a partnership with you, and we are making great strides … in our infrastructure that is being set in place …under the great leadership of our Maritime Director, Bryan Brandes. We are focused on making sure that the Seaport does what it’s supposed to do … that is making it … easy to get in and get out and … transparent in terms of where you are in terms of every step of the way. We are putting technology in to make sure … that’s what we’re doing.”

The big news, Wan said is: “The big news this year is our big success, again with the partnership, (of) many of you in this room … to make sure that the Port can get its fair share of … infrastructure money because we know that we need lots of infrastructure work. We are very proud and very happy that we got the $322 million of federal grants for … zero-emission equipment set in place. We also got close to about a hundred million dollars … got $50 million added to some previous grants for port improvement and port infrastructure development … to improve our wharves and to strengthen our wharves… I know that SSA is seeing some of that work and TraPac.”

In October, the Port of Oakland’s container volume rose 10% over recorded volumes for the same period in 2023. Loaded imports grew for the 12th straight month. Import volume rose 11.2% in October 2024, compared to October 2023. Port operators processed 81,498 TEUs (twenty-foot containers) versus 73,281 TEUs in 2023.

“Overall, the Port’s loaded import cargo is trending towards its pre-pandemic level,” said Port of Oakland Maritime Director Bryan Brandes. “This steady increase in import volume in 2024 is an encouraging trend. We are also seeing a rise in U.S. agricultural exports through Oakland. Thanks to refrigerated warehousing on Port property near the maritime terminals and convenient truck and rail access, we are well-positioned to continue to grow ag export cargo volume through the Oakland Seaport.”

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Desalination and waste water treatment plants can replenish groundwater and slow the sinking of U.S. coastal cities and ports, according to Randy Truby, President, RL Truby & Associates and a former President of the International Desalination Association.

Truby was the keynote speaker at the Storms, Flooding & Sea level Defense 2024 Conference produced by the Propeller Club of Northern California and the Society of American Military Engineers that took place on November 12, 2024.

 DEFENDING SINKING CITIES & PORTS

Truby spoke on the topic: “Desalination Strategies to Replenish Water Tables and Reduce Coastal Subsidence”

Truby cited an article published in the science magazine ‘NATURE’ which describes the combined impact of global sea level rise (projected 0.25-0.3 meters by 2050) and the sinking of coastal land areas (coastal subsidence).

The Virginia Tech authors of the report expressed concern that the combination of these forces will accelerate the impact of Sea Level Rise as coastal cities and communities are sinking and as sea levels rise.

The study’s authors argued for more wastewater treatment and ocean desalination to pump water back into water tables so as to slow the impact of subsidence that is sinking U.S. coastal cities and ports:

“The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25–0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence—the sinking of coastal land areas—a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000–273,000 people and 31,000–171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.”

That study can be found here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07038-3

Truby noted the threat “may not be appreciated by planners and stakeholders.”

The study focused on 32 coastal cities and ports and found the sinking impact greatest among cities and ports adjoining the Gulf of Mexico.

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Matt Schrap, CEO Harbor Trucking Association (HTA) and Matt LeDuq, CEO Forum Mobility, which is developing truck charging stations, both agreed that truck charging infrastructure is a key element in supporting zero emission trucking in California and should have been prioritized by new California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) regulations.

On September 17th, Schrap and LeDuq told the Propeller Club of Northern California that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) should have emphasized the development of truck charging infrastructure in advance of adopting its Advanced Clean Fleet regulations related to zero emission trucks.

Advanced Clean Fleet Regulation

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has reported that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) “has notified the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that it has adopted Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations, applicable to affected state and local government fleets, drayage truck fleets, federal agency fleets, and large commercial fleets that own, lease, or operate on-road medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, and light-duty package delivery vehicles, to incorporate zero-emitting vehicles beginning in 2024. The ACF regulations also require that all new California-certified medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales be zero-emitting vehicles starting in 2036. Elements of the ACF regulation apply to off-road engines and equipment, specifically off-road yard tractors. By letter dated November 15, 2023, CARB submitted a request that EPA grant a waiver of preemption under section 209(b) of the Clean Air Act (CAA) for the ACF on-road regulations.”

California Air Resources Board Is Criticized

At the Propeller Club, Schrap criticized CARB, especially about the Advanced Clean Fleets rule and the lack of truck charging: “There’s not enough charging infrastructure or hydrogen fueling infrastructure to justify the timelines. And the rule and the feedback from the State of California is like ‘if you regulate it, it will come’ … And the rule and the feedback from the State of California is like ‘if you regulate it, it will come’ … The Advanced Clean Fleets rule is Ill-conceived beyond ill-conceived for drayage … Ingress and egress as truckers are controlled by the terminals (at California ports). So, they can red light you at the terminal and not allow you to pick up your box if you’re not in compliance with the statewide rules, which is what the mechanism that the State of California looked at to be the enforcement arm of the drayage provision. There is no phase in percentage … or any flexibility opportunities under the ACF as it currently exists. It’s a very difficult proposition to think about as a drayage carrier.”

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Leanne Andalis Joins the Board of the Propeller Club of Northern California

Leanne is VP of Sales & Marketing for GSC